The PC world is experiencing significant turbulence. On one hand, we’re seeing a shipment surge that surpassed expectations at the end of 2025. However, behind these positive numbers lies a potential storm brewing for 2026. As a Product Manager constantly looking towards the future of technology, I see this as a crucial moment that warrants our collective attention.
Key Points You Need to Know:
- Shipment Surge: Global PC shipments jumped nearly 10% YoY in Q4 2025, reaching 76.4 million units, driven by the end of Windows 10 support.
- AI Memory Shortage Threat: High demand from AI data centers is creating a shortage of memory chips (RAM & NAND/SSD), leading to price increases and potential PC specification downgrades in 2026.
- Manufacturer Strategies: PC manufacturers are aggressively accelerating inventory shipments to anticipate tariffs and shortages, but stock is expected to dwindle in early 2026.
- Price & Specification Implications: PC ASP is predicted to rise in 2026, with mid-to-high-end PCs likely to be prioritized and potential memory specification downgrades on certain models.
- Purchase Recommendation: If you plan to upgrade, consider purchasing in late 2025 to avoid price hikes and shortages in 2026.
The Story Behind the Shipment Surge: Windows 10 & Inventory Panic
You might be wondering what caused the PC market to suddenly breathe a sigh of relief at the end of 2025. Reports from the International Data Corporation (IDC) offer two primary explanations. Firstly, the end of Microsoft’s support lifecycle for the Windows 10 operating system. This served as a major trigger, prompting many users and organizations to upgrade their hardware and software promptly for security and functionality.
However, the story doesn’t end there. IDC also highlights the aggressive maneuvers by PC manufacturers. They seem to be in a race against time to accelerate their inventory shipments. Why? Two main factors: the looming threat of tariff increases and concerns about global supply shortages, particularly for memory components.
AI: The Culprit Behind the 2026 Memory Shortage ‘Storm’
Now, let’s delve into the root cause predicted to make 2026 a highly volatile year. The ‘storm’ phenomenon we’re referring to is the direct impact of the artificial intelligence (AI) explosion. Data centers, the ‘brains’ behind various AI solutions, require massive computing power, which translates to extremely high consumption of memory chips (RAM and NAND/SSD).
Imagine it this way: AI’s demand is like drinking a large amount of water from the same source. When demand surges drastically, the water reserves dwindle. The same is happening with memory chip production. The skyrocketing demand from the AI sector has created a significant shortage, which has in turn triggered price increases in recent months.
PC manufacturers like Lenovo and HP, giants in the industry, have already begun ‘stockpiling’ these memory chips. They are doing this to ensure their production lines keep running and to secure supply before prices escalate further or they become difficult to obtain. However, analysts predict that the stock they have accumulated is likely to be depleted in the coming months, heading into early 2026.
Real Impact: Prices Up, Specifications Down?
So, what are the implications for you as a consumer or even a developer assembling your dream ‘battle station’? IDC predicts two main consequences:
- Increased Average Selling Price (ASP): To offset rising component costs, PC manufacturers will likely increase selling prices. They will also tend to prioritize the production of mid-to-high-end systems. Why? Because this segment offers better profit margins to cover higher production costs.
- Potential Specification Downgrades: This is the most interesting and concerning point. Jean Philippe Bouchard from IDC suggests that we might see an average ‘memory specification downgrade’ in PCs. The analogy is, if you usually order coffee with two sugars, you might only get one sugar in the future so the coffee shop’s sugar supply doesn’t run out quickly. Similar scenarios could occur with RAM or SSD capacity in standard PC configurations.
Solutions & Recommendations: Secure Your ‘Digital Assets’ Now
Facing this volatility, as a Product Manager, I see a smart solution you can take. Instead of getting caught in price hikes or being forced to compromise on specifications in 2026, the best time to invest in your new PC is now.
By leveraging the shipment surge momentum at the end of 2025, you have a greater opportunity to secure a unit with your desired specifications at a price that is still relatively stable before the AI ‘storm’ truly impacts the market. This isn’t just advice; it’s a smart strategy to ensure you get the best value from your technology investment.
We in the Product team always strive to provide you with the most relevant insights. The PC market is indeed turbulent, but with the right understanding, you can turn potential challenges into opportunities. So, don’t delay any longer; consider carefully and make a strategic decision to upgrade your PC before the market fully enters its volatile era in 2026!
